This is an extension of the existing project ‘Mathematical model of hospital patient flow’ a project aimed at developing a mathematical model able to predict discharge times of patients in a hospital. This is one of the biggest challenges faced by hospitals, identified by the collaboration recently established between the University of Aberdeen, Robert Gordon University and NHS Grampian. Due to the limited capacity of hospital resources, uncertainty in discharge times of patients imposes substantial stress on staff, having to spend a significant amount of time every day planning for bed availability.
In the first part of the project we are developing a mathematical model of patient flow through a hospital, in which patients are described as individual stochastic particles moving through a network representing different wards within the hospital. This model allows both predicting discharge times of patients and suggesting improvements in the hospital structure. In this second part of this project, we aim at validating and further improving the model by using NHS Grampian data through the Safe Haven environment.