Retirees in Scotland spend a higher proportion of their budget on fish products than households with children.
Seafood is an important source of lean protein, omega-3 fatty acids, vitamins, and minerals. Greenhouse gas emissions linked to fish production are significantly lower than those related to red meat and pork production. The seafood industry in Scotland holds significant economic importance by generating employment, driving exports, supporting regional development, and contributing to the nation's trade balance and coastal communities' livelihoods. Yet, most people in Scotland only eat around half of the recommended amount of seafood.
The consumer demand for fish in Scotland was analysed using time-series data and a demand system approach. As part of this, a comparison of the fish consumption patterns of different household groups -classified based on the composition of the family- was carried out. The data for the analysis was constructed based on a home-scanner dataset for Scotland, which contains weekly data on food and drink purchases for consumption at home, covering the period 2013-2021.
Our findings
Out of the seven household groups, the retired group spends the most of their total grocery budget on fish consumption, while the older family group spends the least of their total grocery budget on fish.
Figure 1: Expenditure share of all fish categories of the total grocery expenditures, 2013-2021
Source: Own elaboration based on Kantar Worldpanel data.
The preference for convenient fish products over fresh fish has been increasing among households, particularly those with children.
The analysis also revealed that most of the money spent on fish in households with children went towards frozen fish (Figure 2). Families with no children at home spend the highest amount of expenditure on wet/smoked fish out of their total fish expenditure. As shown in Figure 2, convenient fish products have been more popular over fresh fish among households, in particular those with children. Consumers have less time to cook fish in the modern world, and some find it unpleasant. As a result, many consumers prefer filleted, boneless, and readily cooked fish. Aside from increased convenience, these pre-packaged fish items provide assurances of freshness (use by date), information on the source (country of origin labelling), quality assurances (branding), and more transparent pricing (price per portion).
Figure 2: Expenditure shares of each fish category, 2013-2021
Demand from families with children is more sensitive to changes in income and prices than the demand from families with only adults.
We also analysed how changes in prices and income affect the demand for five aggregate fish categories across seven household groups: pre-family, young family, middle family, older family, older dependents, empty nests, and retired family.
For the majority of fish groups, demand from families with children is more responsive to changes in income, while demand from families with only adults is less responsive to income. Most of the household groups are highly responsive to income changes for wet/smoked fish. The demand for canned fish remains relatively stable across all household groups, regardless of changes in income. In other words, the quantity of canned fish purchased remains relatively stable regardless of whether a family's income increases or decreases. All household groups are less sensitive to changes in frozen fish prices and more sensitive to changes in wet/smoked fish prices. Overall, older dependents, empty nests, and retired groups are less responsive to own-price changes of most fish categories compared to other family groups with children. Families with children typically have more expenses related to childcare, education, and other family needs. As a result, they may have stricter budget constraints, making them more sensitive to price changes.
Scottish consumers are more responsive to changes in fish products’ own prices compared with their response to cross-price changes.
Also, we found that canned fish and chilled prepared fish are substitutes in pre-family and retired groups and the degree of substitutability is very high in pre-family groups. Shellfish and chilled prepared fish are substitutes for older families and older dependent groups. Middle-family groups consume both shellfish and frozen fish as substitutes for wet/smoked fish. All cross-price effects are less pronounced as compared to the own-price elasticities indicating that Scottish consumers are more responsive to changes in fish products’ own prices compared with their response to cross-price changes.
Final thoughts
There is a need to increase the Scottish consumption of fish; However, this study found that fish demand of all household groups is responsive to changes in price and income; therefore, the current cost of living crisis may affect fish consumption, with fish being replaced by other, possibly less healthy and less environmentally sustainable protein sources. Therefore, it is crucial to develop and implement education and promotion initiatives that highlight the health benefits of fish consumption and sustainable fishing practices. These initiatives should encompass nutritional awareness campaigns, cooking classes, and the integration of fish-related topics into school curricula. Collaborative efforts with healthcare professionals and retailers, along with a strong online presence, can effectively disseminate this information to a wider audience, ultimately fostering a greater appreciation for fish in diets and supporting responsible fishing practices.
By
Dr. Shashika Rathnayaka Dr Shashika Rathnayaka Mudiyanselage | The Rowett Institute | The University of Aberdeen (abdn.ac.uk)
Professor Cesar Revoredo-Giha https://pure.sruc.ac.uk/en/persons/cesar-revoredo-giha
Professor Baukje de Roos Professor Baukje de Roos | The Rowett Institute | The University of Aberdeen (abdn.ac.uk)
(This paper was presented at the XVII Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists on 29th August 2023 in Rennes, France)
This work was funded by the Scottish Government: Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services
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