A future framed by homelessness, late parenthood and families being raised in inadequate accommodation is being faced by Britain’s young people.
That's the stark warning issued by researchers at the Universities of Aberdeen and Loughborough, who claim that the current housing crisis is threatening to return the country to the type of grossly divided society last seen in the 19th and early 20th century.
They say a global credit boom and historically low interest rates have sparked soaring levels of largely speculative buy-to-let investment and lax lending practices. The result? A significant sector of the population has been left with the prospect of a lifetime of indebtedness or, alternatively, with little hope of ever accessing the housing ladder.
And they claim that political indifference to the problem has left Britain potentially facing the most profound and regressive socio-economic change since the end of World War II.
Dr John Bone, a sociology lecturer at the University of Aberdeen and Dr Karen O'Reilly, a Reader in Sociology at Loughborough University, have recently completed the pilot phase of a new study called 'On the Treadmill' – an exploration of the life chances and well being of young adults in contemporary Britain.
Central to their research is the impact of the global house price bubble on the future and current well being of 18-40-year-olds in the UK. And their initial observations suggest that the outlook is bleak.
"Regardless of whether the current housing boom ends in a sudden crash or prolonged stagnation, the consequences for society in both the short and long term are likely to be both dramatic and damaging," said Dr Bone.
"For the people, young and not so young, who find themselves on the wrong side of the current housing divide, the experience is one of extended student style house sharing, living with parents, together with postponed independence, relationship formation and parenting.
"In more severe cases, of course, the consequence is homelessness. All of this has rendered the UK government's rhetoric regarding the 'opportunity society', and the importance of education and work as the route to success, somewhat hollow.
"As the gulf between earnings and house prices yawns, success, security and status now appear to be increasingly dependent upon property ownership rather than income from work. Indeed, we are now reaching a point where, for many, access to what has been regarded as the average way of life in the UK since the end of the Second World War is now being denied to a large contingent of the population."
Dr Bone said their early research had highlighted how young families were being forced into renting from buy-to-let landlords, with some regularly moved on by investors liquidating their assets.
"One young family amongst our initial subjects reported that they had been moved on no fewer than five times in four years," said Dr Bone. "Meanwhile, those who have accessed the housing ladder have had to take on a level of risk which would have seemed inconceivable to previous generations."
He cautioned, "Many young couples and families are now assuming levels of debt that will render them little more than bonded labourers, particularly in a rising interest rate environment, to the financial institutions that once 'helped them out' with huge advances in terms of their incomes
"For these young homeowners, the burden of mortgage debt will place great stress on those who have families, as both debt harassed parents are forced to work increasingly long hours to meet the mortgage payments. Little time will be left for family life and little disposable income with which to enjoy it.
"And this," he said, "is all at a time when UK politicians of all hues bemoan the demise of family stability, family values and good parenting practices as the source of many contemporary social ills."
Dr Bone claims that if the number of buy-to-let landlords continues to swell Britain will move towards a 'rentier' society more reminiscent of the 19th century, where "through property and inheritance, one sector of society lives from unearned income derived from the earned income of the other."
And he says UK politicians are too in thrall to middle Britain and the increasingly powerful financial sector to affect change.
"We view buy-to-let, cheap money and a lack of restriction on the salary multiples that people are permitted to borrow as being the main causes of the housing boom, and that legislation in these areas is the solution," said Dr Bone. "However, continuing house price inflation, despite being unsustainable, is now viewed as an essential driver of our consumer society, with no politician wishing to see the almost inevitable bust on their watch."
He added, "Good quality, secure and reasonably priced housing is a crucial element in achieving a decent society with stable families and good communities. However, speculative buy-to-let investment, irresponsible lending and political indifference are key elements amongst a range of factors that are removing that right from a generation of young people and families.
"The profits of the few," he continued, "are being bought with the life chances of the many – and the dispossessed are paying for the privilege. If left unchecked, this trend has the potential to return us to a form of grossly divided, unequal and unjust rentier society echoing the socio-economic divisions of the 19th and early 20th century."
Dr Bone, who is also the author of award-winning book The Hard Sell – which lays bare the predatory capitalism practiced by UK home improvement firms - said the housing crisis was but one feature of a general shift toward social and economic regression in recent years.
"We're actually regressing into a cruder form of early capitalism," he said. "What I discovered during researching The Hard Sell is arguably a microcosm of what is happening across the economy. We're now in a dog eat dog state of affairs.
"In terms of housing, these developments are now generating a great deal of anger, cynicism and emotional distress with respect to many of the young people in this position we have encountered so far," added Dr Bone. "It's reached such proportions that it seems likely that the housing crisis will have much wider social and even political implications further down the line."
For more information about 'On the Treadmill' visit www.abdn.ac.uk/sociology/onthetreadmill