A new study by researchers at the University of Aberdeen has revealed that the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), although now a maturing oil and gas province, still offers much long-term potential.
The study published today (Tuesday, June 21) by Professor Alex Kemp, Professor of Economics, and Mrs Linda Stephen, Research Fellow in Economics, in the University’s School of Business, is entitled Prospects for Activity Levels in the UKCS to 2030: the 2005 Perspective.
To date around 34 billion barrels of oil equivalent (bn boe) have been produced.
Professor Kemp said: “Using financial modelling the study finds that from now until 2030 under the central price case of $30 per barrel and 28 pence per term another cumulative total of 22.6 bn boe could be recovered.
“In the lower price scenario of $20, 18 pence the further cumulative production could amount to 20.4 bn boe. In the high price case of $40, 36 pence the extra total production to 2030 could be 23.6 bn boe.
“In the central case aggregate production in 2010 is just below the PILOT aspirational target of 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d). By 2020 it could still exceed 2 mmboe/d and by 2030 it could be around 1 mmboe/d.”
However, Professor Kemp warns that the achievement of these longer-term production levels is by no means assured. Their attainment depends on the development of large numbers of fields currently classified as technical reserves and on the discovery of substantial numbers of new fields. A further requirement is the continued development of large numbers of incremental projects to enhance recovery from mature fields.
Professor Kemp added: “Several PILOT initiatives are currently in progress covering fallow blocks/discoveries, infrastructure Code of Practice and brownfields/stewardship.
“The attainment of the longer-term production potential depends substantially on the success of these initiatives and on the continued availability of a substantial infrastructure network of pipelines and terminals.
“The longer-term fortunes of the supply and contracting sector also depend critically on the success of these initiatives.”