This is a past event
In the UK, policy decisions on the adoption of new treatments are informed by a cost-effectiveness analysis over a lifetime time horizon. However, evidence on relative treatment efficacy comes from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that typically have a follow-up period of only a few years. Mean survival time is a key input to cost-effectiveness analysis, but is very sensitive to assumptions made on the extrapolation from the short-term RCT evidence into the long-term, and very different estimates can be obtained from different models that each fit the RCT data equally well.
In this workshop we:
1. review how survival analysis differs when analysed for efficacy and for cost-effectiveness
2. demonstrate how we can reconstruct the data used to plot a published survival curve, for re-analysis
3. explore the use of other sources of information, external to the RCT data, that can be used to inform model choice and estimation in order to provide long-term extrapolation of survival curves for use in cost-effectiveness analysis.
We illustrate the methods using an RCT of cetuximab+radiotherapy vs radiotherapy for patients with head and neck cancer, reporting a 5-year follow-up.
- Speaker
- Dr Nicky Welton, Reader in Evidence Synthesis, University of Bristol
- Venue
- Room 115, Health Sciences Building, Foresterhill